Are my podcast downloads declining because of iOS 17?
Over the past six weeks, many podcasters I know have seen declining download numbers.
Why? On September 18, 2023, Apple released iOS 17. Along with it, Apple made several changes to their Apple Podcasts app, including a significant update to the way Apple Podcasts manages automatic downloads.
For some, Apple's changes to automatic downloads are cause for celebration. For others, concern.
Here's the positive spin: Apple's changes help close the gap between downloads and actual listening behaviour. Not every downloaded episode gets played. So, fewer automatic downloads mean fewer downloads sitting unplayed on people's phones. For sponsors and advertisers, fewer automatic downloads mean fewer ads and promos that never get heard. Better bang for buck. Great news!
Of course, the flip side of this is that fewer automatic downloads mean fewer downloads. And if your revenue model depends on ad impressions inserted into downloads, that can hurt.
"My downloads are declining because of iOS 17," people have been telling me. "What's the industry average? How much of a decline is 'normal'?"
I wish I had a good one-size-fits-all answer. But I don't. Nearly every podcaster I know is feeling the impact of Apple's changes differently, depending on a few important factors:
- Episode release frequency
- Depth of back catalog
- Percentage of the show's audience using Apple Podcasts
- Adoption of iOS 17 among a show's audience
The shows that seem to be feeling Apple's changes the most tend to release new episodes frequently, maintain deep back catalogs, and have a high percentage of Apple Podcasts listeners.
What's the best way to understand the impact of Apple's changes on your show? How should you equip yourself with the best information possible about the real size of your Apple Podcasts audience? For me, there are three separate but interrelated questions to answer:
- Are my Apple Podcasts downloads declining? If so, by how much?
- Is the number of people in my audience declining? If so, by how much?
- How many downloads does my average Apple Podcasts listener generate?
Let's dig in.
Question 1: Are my Apple Podcasts downloads declining?
Firstly, let's isolate Apple-attributed downloads. Specifically, we want the number of Apple Podcasts-attributed downloads before and after iOS 17 was released.
Many hosting providers offer a way to export your show's total downloads by day, broken down by listening app.
For example, in the Megaphone dashboard, I can go to Reports → Application Report, choose a show, then set a date range that covers a few weeks leading up to September 18, 2023, and a few weeks after. I can then export a CSV file that includes Apple Podcasts downloads broken out by day.
When visualized, it might look like:
It's easy to spot the iOS 17 release day in mid-September 2023. Your show's Apple Podcasts-attributed downloads may be declining. But that doesn't necessarily mean the number of Apple Podcasts listeners (AKA people) is declining. So let's check that next...
Question 2: Is the size of my Apple Podcasts audience declining?
Next, let's log in to Apple Podcasts Connect, and navigate to Analytics → Trends for your show. Select a date range that covers the both before and after iOS 17's release date of September 18, 2023. Then set the chart to display Listeners / By Engagement. You should be able to export a CSV file.
If you look at the number of daily verified Apple Podcasts listeners, you may discover that the number of actual people listening to your show on a daily basis has held steadier than downloads alone might suggest.
Downloads are not people. It's especially important to remember this when downloads are declining.
Question 3: How many downloads does my average Apple Podcasts listener generate?
In answering our first two questions, we used two separate datasets:
- Daily Apple Podcasts-attributed downloads from your hosting provider
- Daily Apple Podcasts verified listeners from Apple Podcasts Connect
With both in hand, we can line up the dates and calculate a wonderful derived metric: average Apple Podcasts downloads per verified Apple Podcasts listener, by day. Because it's broken down by day, we can measure it over time:
Look at that! Average downloads per verified listener are declining. This seems to be by design, and is evidence that, as Sounds Profitable says, Apple's changes “further align reported downloads with listener consumption."
As more of your audience adopts iOS 17, the lower this ratio should go.
Watch this number closely, and use it as a barometer over time to understand when the decline in Apple Podcasts downloads for your show has slowed (or ended). This ratio — comparing downloads to people — is my best recommendation to understand your show's level of exposure to any future changes to automatic download behaviour.
Remember
- Apple Podcasts significantly changed the way automatic downloads work in iOS 17
- A decline in downloads is not always a sign that your audience size is declining
- Downloads aren't people
- Compare Apple Podcasts-attributed downloads to Apple Podcasts verified listeners to understand your exposure to any future changes in automatic download behaviour