If the success of your podcast business relies on downloads, your organization is at significant risk.

If you monetize solely through ad impressions inserted into downloads, the next couple of years will be tough.

If you report downloads to your boss to get your next bonus, you will have a challenging time.

The download is the de-facto currency for podcast monetization today. We use it to buy and sell, to transact, and to measure value. But that value is decreasing and we need to replace our currency soon.

Downloads as a business liability

Downloads are decreasing for many podcasts. The reasons include (like we’ve covered before) the launch of iOS17 in 2023, Spotify’s video push, and the growth of YouTube. A significant increase of downloads in the near future is unlikely for most shows.

To be clear, a downturn in downloads is largely disconnected from actual podcast consumption. Research suggests podcast audiences continue to grow globally with podcasts reaching a record number of people in the US, Canada and the UK in 2025.

We see the same pattern for most of our clients: downloads are pointing downwards while playback is going up. More listening but fewer downloads.

Worst-case download scenarios

There are many scenarios in which we see’ll ongoing decreases in downloads.

These are not predictions, and this is not meant to create fear. But these are scenarios that could seriously impact podcast businesses if we don’t find better ways to measure the success of our shows.

Scenario 1: Apple Podcasts turns off auto-downloads

Although Apple Podcasts changed auto-download behaviour as part of updates to iOS17 in 2023, the default behaviour still is to download MP3 files for podcasts a user follows. This feature has existed since the days of the iPod when podcasts were downloaded to a computer and then synced via iTunes to the iPod. This feature was vital to the initial growth of our industry but makes less sense today: many people have adequate data plans to access audio on-demand on their phones.

Apple could turn off auto-downloads at any time – although we’ve seen no indication they will do this any time soon.

Scenario 2: Spotify disables “passthrough” for audio podcasts

"Passthrough" refers to the Spotify app accessing audio files directly from third-party hosting providers (e.g. Art19, Simplecast, Transistor), bypassing Spotify's caching system. This arrangement means that every play on Spotify generates a download.

But what if Spotify disables passthrough? What if they cached each audio file and effectively only ever generated one download per episode released?

Spotify has not indicated they are planning to do this but there is precedent: this already happens for video podcast episodes which are fully stored on Spotify’s servers.

Scenario 3: Audiences continue to migrate to video

This is a likely scenario and already happening – albeit gradually. We will see more and more people discovering and consuming video podcasts either on YouTube or Spotify. Any video views on those two platforms do not generate any downloads.

Scenario 4: Advertisers and media buyers demand inventory based on consumption

Here are some awkward questions from advertisers for anyone who fully monetizes their podcasts through download-based ad impressions:

“Can you explain what a download is?”
“A download is a listen, right?”
“Can you prove that all those impressions I’m buying are actually reaching people?”

Every podcast organization needs to be ready with good answers to those questions. Our industry needs to be prepared to offer advertising and sponsorship products that are based on real consumption. In other words, you need to be able to sell your true reach, not just downloads.

Again, none of the above are predictions. These scenarios might not happen next month or even next year. And, if any of this comes to pass, it might not happen overnight.

But the people making and monetizing podcasts are not in control of these scenarios that would significant impact their businesses. Every organization in the podcast industry needs to prepare for a time when the download ceases to be the currency that we are trading on.

How to de-risk our podcast business

There is some great news: the fundamentals of the podcast industry are healthy.

We have growing audiences (again, in 2025 we are reaching a record number of people in the US, Canada and the UK). We are a highly trusted medium. And we are even bigger than we thought.

This is simply a moment of transition. Our businesses relied on one currency which is not equipped to get us to our next phase. This is not a failure but simply a reality of working in a medium that, in the grand scheme, is still very young.

We recommend to all our clients:

1. Get fluent with the available data

Make sure you fully understand the consumption data of your podcasts. Look at verified listeners, playback, and listen/watch time to fully grasp the reach of your show(s). Start tracking your available inventory measured in actual consumption. All this requires aggregating consumption data from multiple sources for which we built the Bumper Dashboard.

2. Prepare your business model using consumption-based data

Advertisers have already started asking for products that are based on exposure of an ad message. Be prepared for requests for ads that have actually been heard/seen by audiences – Bumper is calling those ‘verified impressions’. Start thinking about your pricing structure, available inventory, discounts, etc so you can hit the ground running when you receive briefs from advertisers that request a proven exposure to audiences.

3. Update contracts

Any new agreements with suppliers, talent, shareholders, partners or any other stakeholders should not be focused on downloads. We need to future-proof any multi-year agreements for a post-download world. For example, as networks acquire new shows and set targets, those should not be based on downloads but on actual audience consumption.

The move away from downloads is not happening overnight. And you don't have to be the first one to move. There are many successful podcast businesses today and this is not about disrupting what’s working today.

Instead we need to be prepared for the inevitable of a new podcast currency over the next few years. And this currency is going to be based on proven exposure to audiences.

De-risk your podcast business