"How do I get more downloads?" The XY Problem in Podcast Audience Growth
In the world of customer service, there’s a well-known issue called the XY problem. You might not know it by name, but you’ve almost certainly encountered the XY problem at some point in your life.
The XY problem happens when someone has:
A problem to solve
A solution already in mind
Rather than ask about their problem, the person instead asks about their proposed solution:
A simple example of an XY problem would be if you asked “How can I get a 1/4 inch wood screw through sheet metal with a hammer?” A answer that is technically correct would be to suggest hitting the screw really hard with a hammer repeatedly and hope for the best.
The issue, of course, are the assumptions. The question assumes a wood screw and hammer are the best tools for the job. Moreover, the question obscures the the underlying goal. What is the question-asker trying to do? Hang a picture frame? Build a birdhouse? None of this is clear.
Here’s the thing: the XY problem is everywhere in podcast audience growth.
Let’s look at a few common examples.
“How do I get my podcast to rank higher on the charts?”
Nearly every podcaster I know wants to appear on the top charts in Apple Podcasts and Spotify. There’s nothing wrong with wanting to be on these charts. But it’s important to understand why you want to be on the charts.
Is it about discovery? Is it because you think it’ll help you sell ads? Is it about your boss’s ego?
Be specific: exactly what problem does a chart appearance solve for you?
I’ve worked on many shows that have spent a lot of time on the charts – many of them at or near the top of their respective categories – and in my experience, there are a very small number of underlying problems that a chart appearance alone can solve.
Shortcuts
What’s worse: when podcasters don’t have a clear reason why they want to chart, sometimes they pursue chart appearances for the sake of chart appearances. That’s when shortcuts can become very alluring.
If your boss says, “I want our show to be on the charts,” and you’re not on the charts… life finds a way.
To be clear, Apple and Spotify do not sell chart appearances. However, it’s not difficult to find third-party companies that promise to get your show to chart in exchange for a fee.
“How do I get my podcast to rank higher on the charts?” is a great example of the XY problem because it presumes a chart appearance is a suitable solution to the underlying problem, without actually expressing what the underlying problem is.
Better questions
They best way to avoid the XY problem is to ask broader questions. To add context. To get to the root problem or underlying goal.
Let’s explore this in the context of podcast chart appearances. Good news: Apple clearly explains what their podcast charts measure:
Listening: When listeners are engaging with episodes, it’s an indicator of content popularity.
Follows: When listeners follow a show to receive new episodes, it’s an indicator of their intent to listen.
Completion Rate: When listeners complete episodes, it’s an indicator of content quality.
In other words, an Apple Podcasts chart appearance is a consequence of doing these things well. A chart appearance is evidence you’re making strong, relevant episodes that listeners choose to spend time with in an ongoing way. The chart appearance is a byproduct. Not necessarily a great goal unto itself.
So, rather than asking how to chart, I find it much more helpful to ask questions like:
How do we make the most appealing episodes possible for our audience?
When someone listens, how do we encourage them to opt-in for more?
How do we craft episodes that encourage people to stick around until the end?
These are hard questions. They’re editorial and content questions. There are no paid shortcuts here, nor are there addictive quick fixes. But if you can answer these questions, you’ll be much closer to long term, sustainable growth. Plus, as a side-effect, you’ll increase the likelihood of a chart appearance.
Let’s look at another example of the XY problem in podcast audience growth.
“How do I use paid social to increase the size of my podcast audience?”
I hear this question all time time, especially from brands. It makes sense. For many teams, paid social ads are a known quantity, and a regular part of their marketing spend.
But this question has an assumption built in. It presumes that paid social is effective at driving potential listeners to sample a podcast. It presumes that a podcaster can go to Instagram, or TikTok, and that their ads will result in increased sampling.
I’m not saying that’s impossible. But I’ve seen a lot of people try to move audiences from paid social ads into podcast apps, and it’s hard. I have seen very little evidence that paid social represents good bang-for-buck… if the goal is long-term sustainable listener growth.
As Bumper, we see far higher conversion rates from:
Effective use of owned and rented channels
Earned wins and partnerships
Internal activations
Within the world of paid media, paid audio campaigns almost always outperform paid social or paid display campaigns.
I’m not saying paid social can’t work. But if the underlying goal is to increase the size of your podcast audience, it’s dangerous to presume that the most effective way to do that is through paid social. Or paid media of any kind, for that matter.
Ask instead, “What are the rented, owned, earned, and internal channels we can use to put our show in front of prospective listeners?”
OK, one more example…
“How do I get more downloads for my podcast?”
On their own, downloads are an incredibly crude way to measure podcast success. Still, they’re one of the few widely-agreed-upon yardsticks for our industry.
The thorniest part of the XY problem is that it obscures root problems and desired outcomes. In this case of podcast downloads, they key piece of missing information is why. Why do you want more downloads?
Is it about ad sales? Sponsorship?
It it about influence within a community?
It is about reaching and serving more people?
Is it about demonstrating scale so you can book high-profile guests?
Is it in service of selling to a platform or network who might fund your next season, or your next project?
All of these are perfectly fine underlying goals.
The tough part about this question is that it presumes “more downloads” is a catch-all solution to any underlying problem… and it’s usually not.
Moreover, this goal, without context, establishes a yardstick for success that is incredibly easy to game, trick, and cheat. When podcast business leaders send their editorial and marketing teams out with downloads as the sole measure of success, they create strong incentives to juke the stats.
There’s a long list of ways podcasters can (and have) juked the stats. James Cridland has reported in Podnews about companies who include embedded players on their websites that automatically download podcast episodes as soon as the page loads, regardless of whether anyone hit a play button. Ashley Carman at Bloomberg reported on companies that use ads in mobile games to generate downloads. Some podcast apps use deceptive design patterns that generate automatic downloads for paid advertisers.
These tricks can get you more downloads. But if those downloads don’t correspond to real human time, attention, interest, and appeal… what’s the point?
The issue with easily-gamed metrics like downloads is that downloads ≠ people. Downloads ≠ attention. And downloads ≠ listening.
Remember
The XY problem masks underlying problems and our true goals
This often leads to frustration and wasted time, effort, and money
The XY problem can lead podcasters to pursue shortcuts and quick fixes that are expensive, addictive, or both
Real, measurable, sustainable growth takes time, effort, and a deep understanding of your intended audiences